It is not easy to tell the difference between a promise and a guarantee. In fact, when I looked up their definitions, they still sounded exactly the same. In theory, that should have been the end of it, but they don't mean the same thing to me.
As I see it, a guarantee is 100% certain. When you make a guarantee, there is no possible way that any other outcome will occur (perhaps aside from things completely out of your control like the world blowing up). A promise is the same thing in theory, but at a personal level. When you promise, you are assuring that you will do something (or will not do something).
Because of the personal nature of promises, it allows for the contingency that you will not hold up your end of things. In short, a promise can be broken.
I generally don't guarantee anything. There are too many factors in the world to be so confident. I do make promises, though. I can have very good intentions (or very cruel ones) when I promise something, but I acknowledge the fact that people can change and nothing is ever-sure. As such, a promise encapsulates that sincere belief, while understanding that such a belief may not always be held.
This is a fine line which can easily be missed or ignored in writing. It can make things complicated to have a person who is trying to make a particular outcome happen, but is also preparing for his own failure (or changing his mind in the middle of things). Such people are living simultaneously in two different universes, and straddle them both until the paths divide.
Consider characters you want to work with. What things could they guarantee? What things would they promise? These are the kinds of questions you have to ask yourself in order to know them well enough.
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