Suppose you write a novel. Suppose you spend two years writing and editing it. You finally show it to publishers and none of them want it. Does that prove you're a bad writer? Does it prove that nobody cares about novels anymore? Does it prove that traditional publishing doesn't work anymore?
No. Of course not. It could be a fluke or it could just be bad luck. These questions seem silly to ask, but only if you're rational while listening to them. When you get rejected, all you can think are these negative thoughts. It's understandable, and it's ok to feel those feelings, but don't let them affect your actions. No matter how much evidence you have, you will never have proof.
If you send a poem to 30 literature magazines and you get rejected by all of them, that doesn't prove that your poem is bad. That doesn't prove that it will never get accepted. You could just as easily be accepted by the very next thing you send it to.
Conversely, if you write a play for the first time in your life and it is the most popular and beloved play people have ever seen, that doesn't prove that you will ever write another good play in your life.
Now, there are trends and patterns that you should be aware of. If you make the same mistakes in your writing over and over again, it is very likely that you will make them again unless you specifically try not to. If you have a reader thata always makes the same criticisms of your work, then it is likely that anything you show that reader will get the same response unless you specifically make something different. ut even those are not guaranteed.
On any given day, I go through several moods. I'm cranky in the morning, observant in the afternoon, jovial in the evening, and silly at night. Of course, that's not guaranteed either, since he events going on in my life can also change my mood. If you ask me to read something critically, nobody can guarantee what my reaction would be, even if I read the same essay twice.
So, largely, there's no such thing as proof. No matter what you think, you can never be sure of the future. But this is not something to be depressed about. This is great news. It means that no matter how much you struggle, there is always hope, always a chance that the next one might be the winner. It also means that you never have the luxury of resting on your laurels. Whether you do good or bad, you will always have to work harder and try to do better.
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